Conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh explained why the polls are so skewed and how the Democrats are setting themselves up for an embarrassing defeat.
Most polls are showing that President Trump is going to lose in a landslide in November. They show Biden up 10 plus points and winning most of the battleground states. Here’s a great example from the New York Times (we are going to come back to this too, the poll actually proves Limbaugh’s point).
We interviewed nearly 9000 voters this month. They backed Biden over Trump, 47 to 42. Validated 2016 voters said they backed Trump over Clinton, 45 to 43. pic.twitter.com/VbPIf58lmZ
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 29, 2020
Limbaugh explained during his show that a friend of his had an off-the-record conversation with a pollster and the individual said that the information could be discussed but his name could not be mentioned.
The polls are deliberately oversampling mushy, suburban Republicans to cover charges that they are shorting Republicans overall and deliberately under-sampling rural and small-town, conservative Democrat zip codes. All of this to prove that they are not oversampling Democrats. Then, they announce that they are scientifically fair on party affiliation, when they know in Trump’s case he has far more support from Reagan Democrats than from Bush suburbanites.
And when I saw this theory, when this was explained to me — and I got the note here during a commercial break about 20 minutes ago — I beat myself upside the head. No wonder. This makes perfect sense. This is exactly how they’re doing it. They’re oversampling Republican suburbs. Who lives in Republican suburbs? White, educated women who hate Trump. White, college-educated Millennials who literally despise Trump. And the fact that they are Republican is all the better for the polling units because they can then say, “We’re not shorting Republicans. Our sample is not short of Republicans.”
Well, it turns out that these voters are being deliberately oversampled for two reasons. A, they’re being oversampled because the pollsters love the fact they hate Trump, but also oversampling Republican suburbanites allows them to beat back allegations that they are shorting Republicans and deliberately under-sampling them. So who are they under-sampling? They are deliberately under-sampling people that live in small towns and rural conservative Democrat zip codes. And they’re doing that to prove that they are not oversampling Democrats.
So they’re doing two things here that are producing massive anti-Trump results, and they are ignoring voters who would be massively for Trump. And they’re doing it in order to show that they’re not shorting Democrats or Republicans, and they’re not oversampling Democrats. In other words, they have found where to go to find Republicans who hate Trump — suburbanite dwellers, suburban dwellers, mainly women.
So if they oversample Republican suburbanites and undersample where conservative Democrats live, then they’re gonna get results like they’ve got. And they can say all the while that their results are right on the money based on their sample. They can say they’re not making anything up. They’re not fudging anything. And so if Trump ends up winning again, they say, “You know, well, we must have picked the wrong sample.”
Right on cue here was the analysis from the New York Times of the poll posted above.
A few tabs you won’t find in the pdf: Trump only holds a 62 to 23 percent lead among registered Republicans in Philly, its suburbs, or Allegheny County (Pittsburgh+burbs)
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 28, 2020
So pollsters are oversampling Republican’s detractors and ignoring the Democrats that are furious over the direction of their party and going to vote for Trump. What I can’t wait for is to see how Democrats leaders try to explain why so many people have left their party.